Saturday, July 05, 2008

political wager

Every once in a while, I check out the political odds of various candidates on World Sports Exchange. Obviously, McCain and Obama are currently the respective nominees. I wouldn't waste time betting on either. The odds are basically 2:1 in favor of Obama. However, I thought it was intriguing that you can still bet on Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination. The money line on Hildog is -3233. That means you wager $100 to win over $3233. You can also bet on Al Gore. His line is $100 to win $6500. All the other prior contenders are $100 to win $9,900 and there's zero interest out there (on people like Richardson, Biden, Dodd, etc). They offer the money lines by purchasing futures contracts which I've never done before. I've placed future bets but never bought contracts. In any event, it probably doesn't take rocket scientist. All you have to do is click the button.
Why am I yapping about this shit when Obama has already clinched the Democratic nomination? And why are there still a few stragglers out there betting on Hillary to win the Dem. nomination (not the presidency, just the nomination). Why? Why? Because for the past few months, I keep thinking Obama is going to end up dead. If he gets killed, who does the nomination suddenly fall to. Well, obviously it would go to Hillary. It's not as though the entire Democratic party would remain silent. They'd offer her up in less than an hour. Keep in mind, she doesn't have to win the presdiency, just the nomination.
For a brief moment, reflect on all the political assassinations (and attempted assassinations) in our recent history and around the world. More important, think about all the red states where Obama is going to concentrate his campaign. Confederate states like Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc. These are states with lots of lingering racist undertones. States where Democratic candidates haven't made an active effort in since the 1960's. All it takes is one nutcase. This country has about 1 million legitimate nutcases and I would imagine most of them have guns.
Anyway, here's the reality. There are a few people out there buying futures contracts on Hillary. If Obama ends up dead, those Hillary contracts are going to be worth a shitload of money. And what about the outside possiblity of him just dying from a heart attack or other natural cause? And isn't he planning trips to Iraq, Israel and a few other middle Eastern countries in the near term? Not exactly places that will welcome him with open arms.
Isn't it risky to place a long shot bet on these gambling websites? What if they don't pay out? It's certainly a possibility but I have a reasonable amount of faith in world sports exchange. I've won a few long shots and the money was credited instantaneously. In any event, I trust this site and its often ranked #1 or #2 in the world. They're officialy licensed in England via Antigua. That's where many have their servers - Barbados, Costa Rica, Belize and other Caribbean countries.
So here's the deal. I think I might give this a shot. Now is probably the time. I doubt the odds will increase much further. They seem relatively stagnant at this point. The major point is that Hillary doesn't have to win the presidency, just the nomination. If you think I'm a crackhead, feel free to let me know. If you think I may have a legitimate idea and would consider participating, let me know asap. The sooner, the better. Or maybe I should say, the sooner, the bettor.
Incidentally, I still plan on voting for Obama and desparetely hope he is our next commander-in-chief. After 8 years of dumbshit and Cheney, this country could needs a hero. One final disclaimer - This whole wager is based solely on a long-shot conceptual gambling hunch with some basic Political Science 101 theory thrown in. Nothing more. I'm even thinking of changing my middle name to Hussein... Well, maybe not.

1 comment:

Geoff said...

Small typo,

"The money line on Hildog is -3233."

should be +3233 since the minus sign is only used for favorites.