Think I'm joking. Sound far-fetched. Perhaps. Let me ask though... Is it conceivable that she could actually win the Republican nomination? At first glance, I'd say it's doubtful, but consider the following scenario. Who really knows what will be happening by the time 2011 rolls around. I think the economy will be in the tank. I just can't foresee an improving economic climate. I imagine the massive government spending will have done little to stimulate the job market. I envision continued high unemployment, higher gas prices and inflation in general, and even more government debt as Obama will need to rebuild the military infrastructure. I'm not even factoring in the Obamacare debacle assuming it goes through in some form.
My point - I expect the economy to still be dragging. You can place the blame wherever you want (8 years of Bush, Obama, the Federal Reserve, continuing housing foreclosures, the American people, China decides they want to collect on our debt, etc. blah). I think the majority of the American public would agree that the overall economy will not be in good shape; thus, a continued economic recession as Obama seeks reelection. How about throwing in a domestic or foreign terrorist attack to really undermine confidence since he's generally (and unfairly) viewed as weak on defense. If the economy is totally sucking the balls of Senator Robert Byrd, someone might see an opening.
Alright, here's where it gets interesting. Let's say hypothetically that some heavyweight politician in the Democratic party decides he/she wants to make a run. I'm thinking Al Gore. Basically, he'd position himself as a conservative Democrat but run as an Independent. Crazier things have happened. Al Gore would definitely fit the bill. He has amassed an enormous amount of cash and has wide ranging support. Assuming Obama's popularity has significantly dwindled, you now have a 3 way race. A large portion of the country is still disgusted with both political parties and he wouldn't have to waste huge amounts of cash in a hotly contested primary. Plus, Gore already ran what appeared to be some kind of "angry populist" campaign back in 2000.
Obama - Democrat
Gore - Independent
Palin - Republican
Ohhh, wait a second. I forgot to explain how Palin gets the nomination in the first place. That was supposed to be the main gist of this blog as I'm watching this parade of idiots stand in line (at the crack of dawn) for her book signing in downtown Fort Wayne, Indiana. Regardless of whether you love Sarah or hate her (I'm with the latter), you've got to admit one thing - she definitely rallies the base. I'm talking about the evangelicals and the pro-lifers. And the "patriots" love her. These are the people who mindlessly chant "USA USA" and "Drill Baby Drill" and they love to wear sweatshirts w/ the American flag. Just an aside, I'm hardly a fashion consultant but when people wear those sweatshirts with the American flag on them, they look like disoriented buffoons. Some advice - just stick with a more tasteful lapel pin or mini-hand held flag.
There's a significant portion of the Republican base that has this churchlike mentality. They don't question anything, they tend to embrace the easiness of follow the leader and they despise the mainstream media. These are the "prayer warriors" and guess what... THEY VOTE!
It's hard to say who the major players on the Republican ticket will be in 2012. I'd say Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are the most likely. Romney has a considerable personal fortune but I don't think he has had a lot of success raising money. Huckabee is trying desperately to increase his popularity on Fox News, but I think it has leveled off. Palin, regardless of whether you think she's a complete moron, is on fire right now. A book tour through all the battleground states and a glaring anti-big govt and anti-media message, not to mention her PAC which will probably fare well. She's positioning herself outside the establishment. Romney will have trouble shaking that robotic government mentality. And not to sound like a dickhead, but Huckabee's wife KILLS him. She just doesn't look the part of a first lady. Maybe back in the early 1800's she'd have been an ideal President's wife. I'm sure she's a nice gal and a helluva bowler, but this woman is FRUMPZILLA. And we're talking a few more years down the road. The aging process will not treat her kindly.
Let's take a look at the first three states in the Republican primary - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Huckabee scored a convincing win in Iowa in 2008. He did this on the backs of the evangelicals. Iowa is loaded with them and they propelled him to victory. These are the same people that have a serious distrust of Mormons. Some even equate Mormonism with voodoo and Satanism. I'm not joking. I think this destroys Romney. Obviously, Romney is the most qualified to represent the real Republican party message (fiscal conservatism across the board, endless tax cuts and 1950's social values). But I think this Mormon thing kills him with the base.
In the end, I think Huckabee just can't raise the money. Most of his supporters veer toward Palin who, despite being a complete idiot, has this inspirational underdog charisma. Americans love an underdog, particularly one who waves a flag.
This sets up a Palin vs. Romney showdown. Palin takes Iowa. Romney squeaks out a victory in New Hampshire, but will then get clobbered in bible belt heaven - rural South Carolina. By this time, Palin has enough momentum to carry through. I could see it transpiring a lot like the Bush Jr. vs. McCain saga.
Don't forget how much money she'll make from the proceeds of her book. Of course, all this would hinge on a Ross Perot-like character emerging and running as an independent. How about someone like a Tom Hanks? Crazier things have happened. There's plenty of wealthy people in the U.S. with enormous egos. Could any of them snag the presidency - I doubt it. However, I'm sure there's a few mega-millionaires out there who wouldn't mind throwing a wrench into the 2012 campaign. Just something to think about. As I've said before, crazier things have happened.
I will be at the Sarah Palin book signing in Washington, PA at Sam's Club on Saturday. I'll dust off my sign...
ARE DINOSAURS REALLY
4,000 YEARS OLD?
Why will I do this? The reason is two-fold. First and foremost, I'm totally enamored with the concept of pissing off everyone who loves Sarah Palin. And they'll all be there in a convenient, discernible, congested location. Rock! These morons need to know that not everyone is not in love with the ex-governor of Alaska. Not everyone loves her 5 kids or the fact that she's a hockey mom. I've always thought Bush Jr. was incredibly dangerous because, simply stated, he just wasn't intelligent enough to be President. An aloof neo-con is bad enough, but for the love of fucking God, where does this place Sarah Palin on the totem pole?
The other reason I'll go - I gotta get some more use out of that sign (as I'm sure any true utilitarian would agree).