I'm sitting here at 10:30pm watching the gun fire, molotov cocktails, Mubarek thugs on camelback, lynchings, car burnings, etc. I just can't look away. It's fascinating watching it unfold in real time.
I think we're going to witness some horrific blowback. For 30 some years, the U.S. has supported puppet regimes to the detriment of their populations. Sure, we give them "aid" albeit mostly military. And they still hate us. You might find out why on Friday. They're planning another march. This one is allegedly going to the home of Mubarak. I doubt it.
I have a hunch we're going to see the ugly nature of repression and the "way of things." Mubarak's initial plan was to restrain the military and send in the private thugs. His plan is obviously to create an overwhelming climate of fear. Make the general public fear for their safety, attack foreign reporters, engage in looting while simultaneously use the fighter jets to buzz the city - make people think the govt. is trying to protect them. Keep the military impartial, trying to preserve the peace. Then, if that doesn't succeed, he'll exterminate the masses. I think the military is going to plow down the people w/ tanks and artillery. Simply stated, I think it's inevitable.
I think this is why Obama hasn't been so resolute. He secretly knows that things will probably not go so well. And he can't do shit about it. This might be a major jab at him for 2 years - kill him on foreign policy. Kind of ironic since he has been such a hawk on Afghanistan. Think about some of the other Middle Eastern and North African rebellions. You know, central African rebellions haven't gone so well either. Idi Amin comes to mind in Ougadougou (pronounced Wah Guh Doo Goo). Egypt is unique though, but still has the same fundamental issues that plague its regional neighbors.
I think this is where we're going to witness the cruel "way of things." The United States, for all their pontifications about the spread of democracy and the Palinesque cries of freedom and liberty, has to face some harsh truths. We've been supporting these regimes for quite some time now. We're the ones who sell them weapons. We own them.
I know the general consensus is that Mubarak's out and a new era of democracy is about to overwhelm Egypt and most of the Middle East. I don't think so. Just don't see it happening. Instead I think metro-Egypt might turn into something that resembles the killing fields of Cambodia. I'm just not as optimistic. I think the military, aside from their supposedly non-intervention policy... well, eventually they'll get back in the action. Especially with the future of the country on the line. It's inevitable. While the people have superior numbers, they just don't have the weapons.
Perhaps I'm under the influence. This could be relatively true. I just think the outcome of this entire Egypt civil war ends in the status quo - with an abysmal, negative outcome. I'll even take a stab at the duration. I think it goes for another week or so. And I'll even hazard a guess at 10,000 dead, 100,000 wounded. Just throwing it out there. Remember what happened in Iran when Ahmedinijad won in the last election. Everyone PROTESTED and they all got SQUASHED. Of course, this one has better live coverage. I find all this truly mesmerizing. Good to know that some of my friends are watching American Idol.