Wednesday, February 02, 2011

how it will end in Egypt

I'm sitting here at 10:30pm watching the gun fire, molotov cocktails, Mubarek thugs on camelback, lynchings, car burnings, etc. I just can't look away. It's fascinating watching it unfold in real time.

I think we're going to witness some horrific blowback. For 30 some years, the U.S. has supported puppet regimes to the detriment of their populations. Sure, we give them "aid" albeit mostly military. And they still hate us. You might find out why on Friday. They're planning another march. This one is allegedly going to the home of Mubarak. I doubt it.

I have a hunch we're going to see the ugly nature of repression and the "way of things." Mubarak's initial plan was to restrain the military and send in the private thugs. His plan is obviously to create an overwhelming climate of fear. Make the general public fear for their safety, attack foreign reporters, engage in looting while simultaneously use the fighter jets to buzz the city - make people think the govt. is trying to protect them. Keep the military impartial, trying to preserve the peace. Then, if that doesn't succeed, he'll exterminate the masses. I think the military is going to plow down the people w/ tanks and artillery. Simply stated, I think it's inevitable.

I think this is why Obama hasn't been so resolute. He secretly knows that things will probably not go so well. And he can't do shit about it. This might be a major jab at him for 2 years - kill him on foreign policy. Kind of ironic since he has been such a hawk on Afghanistan. Think about some of the other Middle Eastern and North African rebellions. You know, central African rebellions haven't gone so well either. Idi Amin comes to mind in Ougadougou (pronounced Wah Guh Doo Goo). Egypt is unique though, but still has the same fundamental issues that plague its regional neighbors.

I think this is where we're going to witness the cruel "way of things." The United States, for all their pontifications about the spread of democracy and the Palinesque cries of freedom and liberty, has to face some harsh truths. We've been supporting these regimes for quite some time now. We're the ones who sell them weapons. We own them.

I know the general consensus is that Mubarak's out and a new era of democracy is about to overwhelm Egypt and most of the Middle East. I don't think so. Just don't see it happening. Instead I think metro-Egypt might turn into something that resembles the killing fields of Cambodia. I'm just not as optimistic. I think the military, aside from their supposedly non-intervention policy... well, eventually they'll get back in the action. Especially with the future of the country on the line. It's inevitable. While the people have superior numbers, they just don't have the weapons.

Perhaps I'm under the influence. This could be relatively true. I just think the outcome of this entire Egypt civil war ends in the status quo - with an abysmal, negative outcome. I'll even take a stab at the duration. I think it goes for another week or so. And I'll even hazard a guess at 10,000 dead, 100,000 wounded. Just throwing it out there. Remember what happened in Iran when Ahmedinijad won in the last election. Everyone PROTESTED and they all got SQUASHED. Of course, this one has better live coverage. I find all this truly mesmerizing. Good to know that some of my friends are watching American Idol.


sonofsaf said...

Perhaps my casualty estimates were a bit inflated. I got carried away witnessing the live footage. Still though, if you have a million person march and the other side has tanks at their disposal and an entrenched dictator. Well, that pretty much sets the stage for a complete massacre. Plus, the timing of the reemergence of internet access - seems like the Mubarak regime was actually goading the people to organize and then plow them down.

Anonymous said...

I always feel so uneducated when I read your views on foreign happenings. I was hoping you would weigh in on Egypt. Very good read.

Anonymous said...

DBV - I'm just throwing out my opinions. I'm hardly an expert on Egypt. It does seem like everything is following a script though. And when I say script, I'm talking about the ugly progression you might employ if you were an oppressive dictator worth around 50 billion. These types of people aren't in the habit of taking orders.
I wonder if you might see an allegedly rogue military leader drop bombs on his own people. Then Mubarak, steps back in to save the day. This could get ugly in ways most cannot fathom.
Today could be a modern day occurrence right out of Braveheart.

"Arches" demands the king.

"But sire, won't we kill our own people?"

He casually responds, "Yes, but we'll kill theirs as well. Attack."

My point - with the whole planet telling Mubarak to step down... based on history, I just don't see it happening.

Anonymous said...

Most likely though you'll see Mubarak just wait everyone out. Time, time, time is one his side, yes it is.
Use subversive tactics, fear and intimidation. Probably non-lethal sound weapons and water canons if it comes to it. Egypt has a huge military - about a million people. And some impressive weaponry - compliments of Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush & Obama.

Anonymous said...

I know you aren't an expect of Egypt but you are much more informed than anyone that I know personally. It is always interesting to read your point of view and speculations.

I must say, I wouldn't mind reading an update about the latest infomercials. No thoughts on the Shake Weight? Hasn't Lady Re-Run been doing anything noteworthy? My boys still quote her "Oh, crap" saying and also know all the words to the Mr. T Flavor Wave remix. I may have to go and re-read that one. It's damn funny! Good times!

Anonymous said...

If you think about the whole Egypt mess in terms of the movie Braveheart, things really haven't changed. The king of England would buy people off with land titles and chests of gold. In modern times, we pay off Mubarak (who's wealthier than Bill Gates) with a billion of "foreign aid" so he doesn't attack the Jews. Then, we pay off Israel as well, to the tune of 6 billion. Is it money well spent - hard to really say for sure. Is anyone in this country willing to pay $8.00 for a gallon of gas? I doubt it. SAF

Anonymous said...

Maybe some of the Super Bowl goers wouldn't mind spending $8.00 on gas.